As the war rages in Ukraine and anti-immigrant sentiment grows, voters in the European Union are worried that a potential tilt to the political right could impair the bloc's ability to make decisions. This is the reason why many are flocking to the polls for Sunday's super election.
Voters will choose 720 members of the European Parliament from 20 nations, ranging from the Mediterranean island of Cyprus to the Alpine republic of Austria. The assembly's seats are distributed according to population, with 96 seats in Germany and six in Malta or Luxembourg.
The official results of the elections, which started in the Netherlands on Thursday and are held every five years, cannot be released before the final voting places throughout the 27 EU countries close, with those in Italy closing at 11 p.m. (2100 GMT). The unofficial estimations are expected to start to come in at 16:15 GMT.
Despite the fact that a group of pro-European parties has most likely forced Geert Wilders' anti-immigrant far right party into second place, an unofficial exit poll conducted on Thursday indicated that the party should make significant gains in the Netherlands.
Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations — Hungary, Slovakia and Italy — and are part of the ruling coalition in others, including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands. Polls give the populists an advantage in France, Belgium, Austria and Italy.
The elections come at a testing time for voter confidence in a bloc of some 450 million people. Over the last five years, the EU has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, an economic slump and an energy crisis fueled by the biggest land conflict in Europe since the Second World War.
The polls also mark the beginning of a period of uncertainty for the Europeans and their international partners. Beyond the wrangling to form political groups and establish alliances inside parliament, governments will compete to secure top EU jobs for their national officials.
Chief among them is the presidency of the powerful executive branch, the European Commission, which proposes laws and watches to ensure they are respected. The commission also controls the EU’s purse strings, manages trade and is Europe’s competition watchdog.
Other prestigious positions include those of EU foreign policy chief, the senior diplomat in the bloc, and president of the European Council, which presides over summits of presidents and prime ministers.
Lawmakers in the EU may influence everything from financial regulations to agricultural and environment policies. They also approve the EU budget, which supports infrastructure projects, farm subsidies, and aid to Ukraine in addition to financing the bloc's political agendas.
However, despite their significant influence, political campaigns frequently prioritize domestic concerns over the goals of the European Union. Voters frequently utilize their ballots to express disapproval of the national governments' actions.
Based on surveys, it appears that the pro-European and mainstream parties will continue to hold a majority in parliament, but the hard right, which includes leaders like Marine Le Pen of France and Wilders, will reduce their share of seats.
The biggest political group – the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) – has already edged away from the middle ground, campaigning on traditional far-right issues like more security, tougher migration laws, and a focus on business over social welfare concerns.
Much may depend on whether the Brothers of Italy — the governing party of populist far-right Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, which has neo-fascist roots — stays in the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists, or becomes part of a new hard right group that could be created in the wake of the elections. Meloni also has the further option to work with the EPP.
The second-biggest group — the center-left Socialists and Democrats — and the Greens refuse to align themselves with the ECR. A more dire scenario for pro-European parties would be if the ECR joins forces with Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy to consolidate hard-right influence.
Questions remain over what group Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's staunchly nationalist and anti-migrant Fidesz party might join. It was previously part of the EPP but was forced out in 2021 due to conflicts over its interests and values.
Although Ursula von der Leyen has been the focus of the EPP's campaign, there is no assurance that she would serve a second term as commission president even if they win. Though any nominee must have approval from the parliament, nominations will be made by national leaders.
